Tuesday, December 1, 2009

afghanistan

there are reports that the americans are going to raise their troop levels from 70 000 to 100 000.
there are another 30 000 troops of nato.
the country is one fifth our size,600 000 sq kms to our 3 million sq kms.
that would make it 130 000 troops for 600 000 sq kms.
if they are spread out theoretically,that will be one soldier for every five square kilometres.
they will be concentrated in areas where the taliban are known to be strong.
instead of traditional fighting which consists of artillery fire,they can think of sending in large and well equipped teams to go into the areas where the taliban are located.
that would possibly require a doubling of the troops which are available at present.
the battle of attrition has been entered into with gusto now that the other side has also shown its readiness,the battle to wear down the enemy.
while it will probably be effective,it is easy to imagine that the arms industry will flourish;that is one industry which will be looking up in this downturn.
it is not easy to predict how the taliban will react to a hypothetical call to lay down their arms and register themselves as a political party and participate in setting up a party which will be ready to contest the next elections.
in iraq,the sadr militia and other groups have now begun to contest elections.
why cannot the taliban also be called to the electoral table.
the taliban might not have good hopes of sustaining themselves without the attractions of a gun and the dispensing of fast and violent justice.
they would not be able to think of a slow process where they could buildup and offer themselves as an alternative.it is the result of their total faith in an alternative system.if it were not for 9/11,the americans would not have had a chance to disturb the regime there.
the culture of violence encouraged by the americans in the eighties has fostered the extreme viewpoints which became imminent in the violent scenario.
can the americans let them be,without interfering.if they turn themselves into oppressors,the people will rise up and overthrow the regime.
if the americans are not happy,they can keep a low level of contact with such regimes,as they are doing with iran.
it is all about trade,finally and commerce.though their finances are weakened and running on borrowings,they have to keep the show going on.they cannot call it a day anytime.maybe,they can.but then there is the nuclear weapons issue with pakistan.the show goes on.

2 comments:

BK Chowla said...

America would expect India to be a partner.
We must be careful as America is known to only look after their national interest first and then any one else's.

samurai said...

the americans are highly inconsistent.consistency can only be expected if there is a morality.
it is always uncomfortable while talkng about our need to get close to the americans.